Knowledge, Integrity, Humour

Blog › December 2015

December Sales Ramping Up While Inventory Continues To Decline


 December is showing a continued decline of home inventory in the market as sales are exceeding new listings coming on market Greater Vancouver and throughout the market. Demand continues to be strong and with the holidays approaching, once again more so than previous years and with the typical December listings lull total active listings come January are likely to be a record low. Here is a summary of the activity so far:

 

Greater Vancouver – 1,350 Units Sold so far in December 2015 compared to 2,173 Units Sold in December 2014. Total New Listings so far in November are 1,200 compared to 3,523 total in November 2015. Total Active Listings are at 8,184 (9,017 at the end of November). Sales To Listings Ratio is at 113% compared to 102% in November 2015.

 

Vancouver West - 250 Units Sold so far in December 2015 compared to 415 Units Sold in December 2014. Total New Listings so far in November are 211 compared to 646 total in November 2015. Total Active Listings are at 1,313 (1,466 at the end of November). Sales To Listings Ratio is at 118% compared to 107% in November 2015.

 

Vancouver East – 121 Units Sold so far in December 2015 compared to 266 Units Sold in December 2014. Total New Listings so far in November are 104 compared to 335 total in November 2015. Total Active Listings are at 558 (630 at the end of November). Sales To Listings Ratio is at 116% compared to 99% in November 2015.

 

North Vancouver – 107 Units Sold so far in December 2015 compared to 156 Units Sold in December 2014. Total New Listings so far in November are 89 compared to 269 total in November 2015. Total Active Listings are at 340 (399 at the end of November). Sales To Listings Ratio is at 120% compared to 102% in November 2015.

 

West Vancouver – 41 Units Sold so far in December 2015 compared to 66 Units Sold in December 2014. Total New Listings so far in November are 43 compared to 139 total in November 2015. Total Active Listings are at 409 (468 at the end of November). Sales To Listings Ratio is at 95% compared to 78% in November 2015.

 

Richmond – 185 Units Sold so far in December 2015 compared to 302 Units Sold in December 2014. Total New Listings so far in November are 232 compared to 539 total in November 2015. Total Active Listings are at 1,289 (1,348 at the end of November). Sales To Listings Ratio is at 80% compared to 93% in November 2015.

 

 

 


Changes to Minimum Downpayment For Homes Over $500,000.


From The Globe and Mail

 

The Liberal government is raising the minimum down payment for new insured mortgages to 10 per cent from 5 per cent for the portion of house prices above $500,000.

The new rules will take effect on Feb. 15, 2016. Down payment rules for mortgages for properties below $500,000 will be unchanged.

The move is aimed at cooling overheated housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver but that could risk exaggerating a home price correction in the Prairies.


Ottawa raises minimum down payment for costly homes ( CP Video )

At a news conference in Ottawa, Finance Minister Bill Morneau said Ottawa’s move is targeted at “pockets of risks” in the Toronto and Vancouver housing markets.

“This will impact 1 per cent or less of the market. We think it does it in a very targeted way,” he said.

The finance minister said the government looked closely at what the changes might mean for this will mean for the struggling Alberta economy.

“We considered the fact that the Alberta situation is challenging. We want to make sure that we’re doing things that don’t negatively impact that market and in fact that’s one of the reasons why we were very careful about exactly what we did and only impacted those homes over $500,000 up to a million,” he said.

“We’re not talking about bubbles here. We are talking about ensuring that Canadians take the right approach to investing in a home. It’s to protect the market for the existing home owners and it’s to protect new home buyers as well so that they have the appropriate amount of equity in their home,” he said.

Ottawa had previously restricted its mortgage insurance to homes valued at less than $1-million, so the minimum down payment for more expensive homes remains unchanged at 20 per cent.

“The Ministry of Finance is touching the untouchable,” said Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economist Benjamin Tal.

While the move represents the most significant tightening of mortgage rules since Ottawa implemented the minimum 5 per cent down payment in 2008, the effect may be smaller than expected, writes Mr. Tal.

Just 17 per cent of home sales across Canada over the past year were for between $500,000 and $1-million, although that figure rose to 33 per cent in Vancouver and 40 per cent in Toronto.

Roughly 23 per cent of outstanding mortgages in Canada are considered “high-ratio,” with owners requiring government-backed mortgage insurance, meaning the rules will affect less than 4 per cent of new mortgages, writes Mr. Tal.

Average resale home prices rose an annualized 9.4 per cent in November, the Toronto Real Estate Board reported, while the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board said benchmark prices for homes in the Metro Vancouver area rose nearly 18 per cent since last November.

The share of properties valued at between $500,000 and $1-million is actually smaller in Toronto and Vancouver than given that sizzling markets have pushed many properties, particularly detached homes, over the $1-million mark.

Sizzling markets have pushed the prices of many homes, particularly detached houses, above the $1-million mark in Toronto and Vancouver, pushing out many of the first-time buyers who would most likely be affected by the new rules. A survey earlier this year by private sector mortgage insurer Genworth MI Financial found the average down payment among first-time buyers in Toronto and Vancouver was 20 per cent.

The new rules will likely affect just 5 per cent of new sales in Toronto, and just 2.5 per cent in Vancouver, writes Mr. Tal. But will affect nearly 10 per cent of sales in Calgary, where homeowners tended to have relatively small down payments.

“The overall impact will be felt only at the margin, given the relatively small segment of the market that will be impacted – even in the target markets.”

Even so, the government’s move has widespread support, according to a RE/MAX survey released earlier this week that found two thirds of Canadians agree that the minimum down payment for a home should be at least 10 per cent.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. also announced it was raising the limits on its government-insured mortgage-backed securities program to $105-billion in 2016 from $80-billion this year. The program is an important source for lenders, allowing them securitizes insured mortgages and sell them to investors, with Ottawa providing insurance on both the mortgages and the mortgage-backed securities themselves. The amount of government-backed securities that individual lenders can issue each year was raised from $6-billion to $7.5-billion. CMHC said it was hiking the fees it charges to lenders who go over the prescribed annual allotment, but would lower the fees for lenders who used the government’s Canada Mortgage Bond program.

“The revised fee structure is intended to encourage the development of private market funding alternatives by narrowing the funding cost difference between government sponsored and private market funding sources,” the federal housing agency wrote.



November Market Booming


November finished with 3,603 sales in Greater Vancouver – the only higher November for sales was 1989. Despite a shrinking inventory of homes for sale, the market remains very active. Total listings available as of November 30th were at 9,017 homes in Greater Vancouver. This past month Active Listings in Vancouver were a record low for the month of November, and in fact this November shattered that with 23% fewer properties on the market. Most other neighbourhoods followed suit. “November is typically one of the quietest months of the year in our housing market, but not this year,” Darcy McLeod, REBGV president said.

 

While most areas experienced a slight drop in sales in November compared to October, a few areas such as New Westminster, Richmond and Vancouver’s Westside were at the same level or above October sales. Sales to Listings Ratios in most markets were above 100% meaning that there were more sales in the month than new listings. Greater Vancouver saw a Sales to Listings Ratio at 102% in November, compared to 83% in November 2014 and 71% in November 2013. This contributes to the rapid decline in inventories throughout the region. This trend is actually being experienced across the province and country and was reported as a factor in the decline of resale properties for October and November in the United States.

 

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

 

Greater Vancouver: Total Units Sold in November 2015 was 3,603 – down from 3,714 (3%) in October 2015, up from 2,567 (40%) in November 2014, up from 2,390 (51%) in November 2013; Active Listings are at 9,017 compared to 13,698 at this time last year and 10,513 at the end of October; New Listings in November 2015 were down 17% compared to October 2015; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is steady at 3 Months (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 102% compared to 88% in October 2015 and 83% in November 2014.

 

Vancouver Westside Residential: Total Units Sold in November 2015 was 694 – down from 700 (1%) in October 2015, up from 493 (41%) in November 2014, up from 488 (42%) in November 2013; Active Listings are at 1,466 compared to 2,349 at this time last year and 1,787 at the end of October; New Listings in November 2015 were down 23% compared to October 2015; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is down to 2 Months (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 107% compared to 84% in October 2015 and 84% in November 2014.

 

Vancouver Eastside Residential: Total Units Sold in November 2015 was 333 – down from 357 (7%) in October 2015, up from 284 (17%) in November 2014, up from 282 (17%) in November 2013; Active Listings are at 630 compared to 1,046 at this time last year and 753 at the end of October; New Listings in November 2015 were down 17% compared to October 2015; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is steady at 2 Months (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 99% compared to 89% in October 2015 and 89% in November 2014.

 

North Vancouver Residential: Total Units Sold in November 2015 was 274 – down from 289 (5%) in October 2015, up from 190 (44%) in November 2014, up from 197 (39%) in November 2013; Active Listings are at 399 compared to 753 at this time last year and 494 at the end of October; New Listings in November 2015 were down 7% compared to October 2015; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is down to 1 Months (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 102% compared to 100% in October 2015 and 89% in November 2014.

 

West Vancouver Residential: Total Units Sold in November 2015 was 108 – down from 148 (27%) in October 2015, up from 79 (37%) in November 2014, up from 89 (21%) in November 2013; Active Listings are at 468 compared to 568 at this time last year and 545 at the end of October; New Listings in November 2015 were down 29% compared to October 2015; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is steady at 4 Months (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 78% compared to 75% in October 2015 and 75% in November 2014.

 

Richmond Residential: Total Units Sold in November 2015 was 501 – up from 488 (3%) in October 2015, up from 330 (52%) in November 2014, up from 290 (73%) in November 2013; Active Listings are at 1,348 compared to 2,023 at this time last year and 1,529 at the end of October; New Listings in November 2015 were down 8% compared to October 2015; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is steady at 3 Months (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 93% compared to 83% in October 2015 and 74% in November 2014.